For all intents and purposes, lets call this girl skittles?

Ok, so there is this girl. Lets call her skittles. Her boyfriend just broke up with her like 1.5-2 months ago. She is still really sad and misses him and still likes him. It ended in some dramatic and stupid way that didn't have much reason. Then, yesterday, he called skittles and they talked. He ended up admitting that: he wants her back but feels bad about the past but he cant erase it. She was like "ok?" (she was surprised) Because skittles was confused. Then skittles talked about how this was her dream come true and skittles is starting to jump into it. Last time skittles was dependent on the guy and I think that had something to do with the break up. And I told her that he is a rockey boat and skittles needs to stay away while he rocks back and forth. And then I said that just because he is rocking in your direction doesn't mean that he likes her again. Skittles isn't listening. I know this because everything that happened to her happened to me a while back. And then the girl I was dating broke up with me then tried to "come back" then ended up rocking in the other direction and forgot about me. I don't want that to happen to her (my friend) so I want to keep her expectancies low so skittles wont keep her hopes up and if he does end up rocking the other way skittles wont get hurt. But if he does end up going towards skittles than it will feel even better. So how do I keep skittles expectancies low? Am I being nosey? I'm just trying to help a friend. Should I let her learn it the hard way? just help! Please!? Thanks in advance.